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Bitcoin to Follow the Equities Market; One-Month Correlation Spikes to an All-Time High

Yet another week of weak price movement.

The world’s leading digital asset is trading at $9,072, in red with 24 hours ‘real’ volume of just $624 million.

Meanwhile, altcoins, especially the low cap ones, are enjoying a good uptrend. Among the top altcoins, Cardano is leading the rally with about 6% gains.

Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, some of the top gainers include REN (17.19%), Loopring (16.95%), Nexo (11.18%), Augur (10.93), ZRX (10.76), Status (9.3%), VeChain (8.42%), Enjin Coin (7.89%), OMG Network (6.92%), and Maker (5.88%).

The market in Anemic State

With a downside move on Thursday, the price of bitcoin bounced from June 27 low, and the hourly chart with a long wick candlestick indicates “the short-selling is not sustainable.”

According to the In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) indicators by IntoTheBlock, more than 2.1 million addresses previously purchased 1.38 million BTC in the range of $9,095 and $9,365, which is “a critical resistance level as several of these addresses will attempt to break-even on their positions.”

When it comes to the support levels, over 1 million addresses previously purchased 705,000 BTC between $8,805 and $9,076. Holders in this range will “attempt to remain profitable on their positions and push prices above this level.”

As such, buyers are expected to create support near the $8,900 range and sellers to provide resistance around $9,200.

Meanwhile, for trader DonAlt, a close above $9,500, bitcoin could be expected to move over $10,500; otherwise, he’s looking for $8,500 first and then lower to $7,700.

However, the market remains “boring” and “could stay that way for a while,” he said.

Follow the Equities Market?

Due to the Independence Day holiday on July 4, the US stock market was closed today before the S&P 500 rose for the fourth straight day and closed at a 4% weekly gain. The improving job market has the hopes for economic recovery rising that has the equities market up about 7% of the record set in February after about a 34% drop.

“We’re starting to see the real economic data say, ‘Yes, the recovery is here, and it’s real,’” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network.

The biggest risk to the markets currently is the return of panic we saw in March.

“Legacy markets, however, are rejected at breakout point resistance and “breakdown from these levels would be most logical,” said trader Crypto Yoda.

Now that the trendline is broken and retested on lower time frames, the trader is also expecting bitcoin to follow.

Bitcoin’s 1-month correlation with the S&P 500 provides support to this. The correlation hit a new high of 65.8% this month, as per Skew, which began tracking the data in April 2018. The one-year correlation has also jumped to an ATH above 37%, but reading between 30% to 50% implies a weak correlation.

This means bitcoin continues to be treated like a risk-on asset, but in the current scenario of money printing, this could be a blessing in disguise.

HODLers gonna HODL

HODLers meanwhile are busy holding the digital asset. The number of addresses that are storing bitcoin for at least a year has risen to a peak of 20.3 million in June.

Bitcoin investors believe the flagship cryptocurrency should have a higher value.

Interestingly, bitcoin miners‘ balance is also rising. 1.8 million BTC, about 10% of bitcoin supply is currently held in miner wallets.

But out of this 1.73 million BTC belong to very early miners, and are likely to be lost, as such only 70k BTC is with current mining pools, noted Glassnode.

Miners’ cumulative revenue has also reached $17.5 billion on July 2nd, as per Thermocap, a metric used as a lower bound for the capital inflow into an asset.

Since 2018, while Bitcoin’s Thermocap has been $12.6 billion, Ethereum recorded $4.9 billion, Litecoin $932 million, and Bitcoin Cash $810 million.


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